Sales activity in the Greater Boston real estate market slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4 2023). The following observations are drawn from year-to- date MLSPIN data encompassing 150 Greater Boston communities through December 31, 2023.
Activity for both single-family homes and condominiums declined from Q3 2023 across new listings, pending sales, and closings, as well as softening prices vs. the previous quarter, which is common based on seasonality. For single-families, Q4 saw a median sales price of $700,000, which was lower than the Q3 median price of $750,000, but higher than the same quarter previous year’s median price of $646,000. The same trends were true for single-family average prices, and for condos. The median Q4 condo sale price of $579,000 was 5% lower than the previous quarter, but 7% higher than the last quarter of 2022. The average price was also lower than the previous quarter and higher than the last quarter of 2022. Homes sold more quickly in Q4 of this year vs. Q4 of last year, and
sellers were able to capture a higher percentage of their asking price, on average, with single-family sellers averaging a sale price that was 1% above what they asked for.
On a year-over-year basis, the trends were consistent with what we have been reporting throughout the year: less overall activity and higher prices. Since inventory remained low, sellers continued to control the market and be well-positioned to get record-high prices.
The median sales price was $710,000 for
a single-family and $596,000 for a condo in 2023. While condo sellers averaged 2% above their asking price, single family sellers had to negotiate more, and average 1.5% below their asking price (although this was not true in all individual sub-markets). Both single-family and condo sellers had to wait longer on average to receive acceptable offers than in 2022.
In the luxury market (homes priced at $2 million and above), median prices stayed roughly flat for both single-families and condos (single-families dipped slightly), with fewer units selling. Total sales volume was higher in 2023 than in 2022 for condos, but lower for single-families. It also took longer for luxury properties to sell, with sellers ultimately getting slightly less than
MLSPIN Area Market Review, 1/1/23–12/31/23.
The towns we used for Greater Boston statistics were sourced via Crunchbase. CCIMLS for Barnstable County, 10/1/23–12/31/23.
LINK for Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard data, 10/1/23–12/31/23 vs. 10/1/22–12/31/22.
their asking price (2% under ask for single-families, and 4% under ask for condos).
What should buyers expect in 2024? The Federal Reserve Board recently signaled it will lower interest rates this year, which might encourage more sellers
to list their homes. (Many homeowners who need to buy once they sell have been reluctant to list due to high rates making purchases less affordable). Still, even a slight increase in inventory likely won’t drive down prices much. Many industry experts (MBA, NAR, Realtor.com) are predicting an uptick in the number of homes sold in 2024.
Sellers, meanwhile, should expect continued strong buyer demand and higher prices in 2024. It’s worth noting that some experts (e.g., Realtor.com’s Chief Economist) are forecasting a slight drop in average prices, however.
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
The 840 single-family sales on the Cape and Islands in Q4 2023 represented a 13.3% year-over-year decline. Median sales price was $1.15 million, a 5.2% jump. Average days on market was up 22.5% to 47 days.
This same period also saw 199 condo sales, a 2.5% drop from Q4 2022. Median sales price rose 11.2% to $564,714. Days on market (36) was down 12% year- over-year.
“ 2023 taught us to lean into our fundamentals, a skill set that was somewhat sidelined during the gold
rush days of the pandemic boom,” said Lori Fanning Smith, principal agent at Pine Acres Realty, a Compass team who focuses on Cape Cod. “In 2024, we plan
on making high-touch interactions and events with our clients and make staff a priority. We learned that the unique synergy created by putting like minded and energetic people together in person cannot be replicated through zoom and virtual gatherings.”
“ Our biggest challenge heading into 2024 will continue to be a lack of inventory, coupled with managing seller expectations. We believe the Cape Cod Real Estate market still offers great opportunities as well as a unique lifestyle hard to find anywhere else. Brokers vested in their communities will continue to offer the best pipeline of Coming Soon listings and insight into finding value in a competitive market.”
